Ukraine was able to blunt most of the effects of these cyberattacks through an aggressive cyber defense, with help from private companies, Western governments, and other state and non-state actors. It is also in use further afield in Canada, Turkey, Indonesia etc. However, the military and intelligence blog Oryx, which counts Russian military equipment losses in Ukraine based on photographs sent from the front lines, says Russia has lost 664 tanks (as of . Such a combined-forces attack compels Ukraine to react simultaneously to multiple forms of aggression. This makes me wonder if the NLOS-Cannon and Crusader cancellations were a mistake. Both of these units are permanently stationed well within 250 km of the Ukrainian border and could easily move back to Weapons and training provided by the United States and other Western countries have beenvital for translating Ukraines willingness to fight into battlefield success. Donating money to Ukraines armed forces has become a daily routine for thousands of Ukrainians. Nevertheless, Russia is still attempting a de facto annexation of parts of eastern and southern Ukraine that it controls. The resilience of Ukrainian resistance is embarrassing for a Western think-tank and military community that had confidently predicted that the Russians would conquer Ukraine in a matter of days . The United States and NATO have provided extensive funding for the Ukrainian government and their Ministry of Defense since the 2014 coup-de-tat. By It also highlights Russian challenges in other domains, such as maritime. The armour protection has been upgraded several times in the Leopard series lifetime, potentially making it a resilient tank on the battlefield. Ukrainian attacks during Russias initial advance also made the Russians unwilling to push sensitive electronic warfare and air-defense systems into Ukraine in case they were captured. The declaration by the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, that the certification of the Nord Stream 2 project would not now go ahead, while clearly very At the start of March, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces stated that the Russian military casualties exceeded 150,000. As a former Seargent Ranging Technical Specialist in the IDF, for a battery of M107A1 self propelled 155 mm Howitzers, we already could fire with 50 meter readius accuracy or even better, if meteriological air current data was provided. But the dilemma will remain. Lethality and destructive power of munitions is also proving to be very important, given the prevalence of mechanized forces, dug-in defensive fortifications and the need to be able to destroy targets such as large ammunition depots, he said. Arlington, In addition, the tendency of poorly trained Russian forces to conduct massive bombardments of towns and cities in a war of attrition, rather than conducting basic fire and maneuver, will make it difficult to seize and hold substantial territory against entrenched Ukrainian ground units with Western weapons systems and a pipeline of Western logistical support. Please enable JavaScript for this site to function properly. China also uses wheeled artillery, including the new PCL-181 155-mm gun. Liam Collins Janes delivers persistent monitoring of Russian troop and equipment sightings that connects the unit from the ORBAT, location, source data, exercise and mission (where relevant known), equipment with associated numbers, vessel ID, tail numbers, ground This capability is grouped under the concept of the Radio Electronic Battery.49 In the early morning of February 24, 2022, for example, Russia jammed Ukrainian air defense radar across all frequency bands. For a high-intensity conflict in Europe, Id rather have an armored system like a Paladin or a German PzH 2000, he said. This week, we saw only minor changes in the northern area of operations, with Russia making slight progress in encircling Kharkiv and Kyiv. This varied approach decreases the likelihood of Russia's making a quick, low-casualty victory, but it also signals Russia's resolve for war. Since 2014, the Ukrainian government has developed a new legal basis and institutional capacity for mobilizing, training, and deploying its reserve corpsthe result of hard work by Ukrainian civil society, government, and the military. These problems contributed to the suspension or firing of several senior military officials, such as Lieutenant General Serhiy Kisel, commander of the 1st Guards Tank Army, for dereliction during the offensive against Kharkiv; Lieutenant General Vlaislav Yershov, commander of the 6th Combined Arms Army, for failing to capture Kharkiv; and Vice Admiral Igor Osipov, commander of the Black Sea Fleet, following the sinking of the flagship cruiser Moskva.12. A police officer inspects the remains of a missile that landed in the street, after Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized a military operation in eastern Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine February . But the war ' s focus has now shifted to eastern Ukraineand the open terrain of that part of the country calls for a . Ukrainian and Russian kill chains are slow, systems such as towed artillery remain potent and viable despite being hypothesized as too vulnerable to counter-battery fire in high-end warfighting, Reynolds said. Military Experts React to Ukraine Invasion, By VA NATO officials estimate that up to 40,000 Russian troops have been killed, injured, captured or gone missing in the . For instance, Moscow appointed Volodymyr Saldo, a former mayor of Kherson, as head of the Kherson regional military-civilian administration. These problems were compounded by the Russian armys failure to provide convoy security to logistics vehicles, such as those carrying food, water, medical supplies, mobile kitchens, fuel, engineers, and spare parts. 2020 National Defense Industrial Association. After all, the United States provides security assistance to many countries with mixed results. If youre not moving quick enough, youll get caught in the counterfire.. The assessment focuses predominantly on the operational level of warfare, especially the planning and conduct of the military campaign.1 The operational level links the tactical utilization of forces to strategic objectives and includes such aspects as fire and maneuver, logistics, intelligence, command and control, and planning.2. In Iraq, for instance, the United States had 7 soldiers per 1,000 inhabitants and faced a persistent deadly insurgencyeven with the help of Iraqi government forces and Sunni militia members. If its success as a design can be indicated by export orders, it is worth noting that the Leopard II has been evaluated and purchased in the hundreds by many countries across Europe including Austria, Denmark, Finland, Poland, Hungary and Spain among many others. The Russians can't possibly defend themselves against NATO. Below are a series of recent analysis pieces focusing on Russian troop movements on the border with Ukraine, that leverage the data collected, structured, verified and interconnected by Janes. Ukrainian glee at receiving U.S. M777 105mm howitzers was tempered by the realization that they are towed rather than self-propelled weapons, which can take three or more minutes to displace after firing. , This meant that one of Russias primary ways to strike deep into Ukraine was through cruise missiles launched from Russia, Belarus, and maritime vessels in the Black Sea. Russian forces constructed and reinforced some railheads, bridges, and roads, and Russian naval successes along the Sea of Azov allowed Russian ships to resupply Russian forces by water. Budanov predicts that the coming months will see decisive battles that will significantly impact how this war ends. In addition, the Ministry of Defense fired the head of the procurement department while the deputy minister of defense resigned voluntarily. Ukrainian leaders were receptive to these efforts because they boosted battlefield effectiveness without threatening existing institutional interests. The Ukrainian military said fighting. In NATO armies, such training would be carried out over a number of months and this programme will now have to be seriously truncated. Smaller scale efforts around the world have produced so-called Faberg egg armies, militaries that are expensive to build but easy to crack. There are local reasons why airpower has not been a major factor in Ukraine, such as the small number of Ukrainian aircraft or the timidity of the Russian Air Force. Following historic examples, Russia has lost heavily in its initial, rash, attempt at a decisive early victory, but has now settled into a methodological, positional type of warfare that advantages its superiority in artillery firepower. At the same time, highly expensive aircraft and limited stockpiles of smart munitions may be allocated to distant targets in the enemy flank, rather than close-air support. Ukrainian ground forces have used UAS to collect intelligence for battlefield awareness, provide real-time or near real-time information to artillery and other systems for standoff attack, perform battle damage assessments, conduct electronic warfare, strike targets, engage in information operations, and execute other missions. This makes for a lower target on the battlefield and the main gun has an advanced fire control system, night-vision and laser range-finding. It became obvious in recent weeks that both the German government and public have reservations about sending German tanks to Ukraine, a country that was so ravaged by combat in the Second World War. Ukraine's military said that there is a shortage of skilled workers at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant due to Russia's ongoing war. It now appears that Germany, Britain and the US have all decided to send consignments of main battle tanks to Ukraine. Ukrainians fought Russians with Ukrainian weapons operating on Arabic interfaces. First, the Russian military faced considerable logistics challenges, in part because of poor training and planning. It has taken control of critical infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants and steel plants, and rerouted internet through Russia. Towed systems take longer to displace, he said. These challenges undermined Moscows attempt to establish air dominance over Ukraine, conduct effective precision strikes, and support advancing Russian ground forces. Janes delivers persistent monitoring of Russian troop and equipment sightings, leverages Janes assured equipment and military unit data to offer an in-depth view of military activity. Russian cyber and electronic warfare capabilities have largely been neutralized by effective Ukrainian countermeasures, with help from Western state and non-state entities. Wheeled guns have the firepower and mobility of an armored self-propelled howitzer, without the weight and maintenance issues. 2023 Atlantic Council Russia's military build-up in Belarus and along the Ukrainian border has continued unabated over the past 14 days. Range has proven very important as a factor in force protection as much as the ability to strike the enemy deep, Reynolds said. In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale war against Ukraine. Russian air strike on Yavoriv training base. Three weeks into the war, for example, the Russian air force began to run low on precision-guided munitions, such as laser- and satellite-guided bombs, which caused the Russians to use a growing number of unguided artillery shells, rockets, and missiles from the ground forces.18 When it came to weapons systems such as the Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile system, the Russian military was also hesitant to expend a portion of its stockpile, which it needed for defense against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and other threats.19 In addition, dozens of Russian UAVs, such as the Orlan-10, Orlan-20, Orlan-30, Eleron-3, and Forpost, were shot down on the battlefield or subject to electronic jamming.20 These challenges were exacerbated by the inability of Russias domestic arms industry to replace these UAVs quickly.21. There is little probability that Vladimir Putin will stop now. At the least, it suggests that cannons are back with a bang. But in an era of high-performance air-defense systems, airpower may have less freedom to operate in contested skies such as Eastern Europe or Taiwan. "It all started there, and it will end there, with the . That changed in February 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion. Until that offensive begins, Russia will continue targeting Odesa with air and naval fires, with little regard for collateral damage to the historic city. He also believes that shells and rockets deserve attention. The partial mobilisation of reserves has further allowed Russia to deploy these second-line troops into defensive positions, while at the same time allowing for the redeployment of more seasoned and regular units into manoeuvre formations. Neither side seems currently placed to inflict decisive damage on the other. the build-up began in October 2021. For Russia, annexation of these areas is a fait accompli. After a Pivotal Period in Ukraine, U.S. Officials Predict the War's Path. The head of ground forces, Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, said the military was using the defence of Bakhmut to buy time until Ukraine is able to carry out an anticipated spring offensive. After losing the first phase, what next for Russia in Ukraine? This analysis examines lessons from Russian air, ground, cyber, and other domains following Moscows February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Request a free consultation to discover how Janes can provide you with assured, interconnected open-source intelligence. Social media indicates the frequency of deployments has increased, with daily. In an effort to improve overall command and control of Russian operations, particularly air-ground integration, Russian president Vladimir Putin appointed General Aleksandr Dvornikov to oversee military operations in April. Please review their details and accept them to load the content.Manage Preferences, From RT Radio 1's Morning Ireland, Dr. Mike Martin, Senior War Studies Fellow at King's College London, on Russia firing missiles at Ukraine following the announcement of Western pledges of tanks to Kyiv. Ultimately, though, Yovanovitch said, she believes Ukraine will win the war. Russia will also likely face long-term supply chain challenges for some weapons systems because of Western economic sanctions. 2023 Council on Foreign Relations, Inc. All Rights Reserved. We anticipate Russia will attempt an amphibious landing behind the front lines and unopposed, with the intent to reinforce and resupply the force aimed at Odesa. Over the long run, Russia may face a supply chain challenge because of U.S. and other Western sanctions. It concludes with policy implications for the United States and its Western allies and partners. Russia will increasingly target external materiel and personnel support to Ukraine, including humanitarian aid shipments. The ability of tracked vehicles to maneuver in rough or muddy terrain is useful, as is the armor protection. Roughly 150 of the troops in a BTG could be considered support, which is notably lower than some militaries such as the U.S. Army, which deploys approximately 10 support soldiers for every combat soldier.28 Without access to rail transport that usually moves Russian heavy equipment, and with the few roads available clogged with traffic, it became increasingly difficult for the Russian army to move food, fuel, munitions, spare parts, and other supplies to forward-deployed forces. publishers of More proactive reforms in civilian control and defense procurement would have ensured Kyivs readiness for a larger war. The Scowcroft Center Military Fellows Program, housed by the Forward Defense practice, hosts military fellows from participating branches of the US military and the armed forces of US allies and partners each year as part of a twelve-month fellowship program. Indeed, drones may be the key enabler for armies with limited capabilities for directing artillery. Airpower has played a relatively limited role, while artillery has emerged as the dominant weapon. But controlling territory in a foreign country with a hostile Ukrainian population was deeply problematic for the Russian military, particularly since the conflict began to resemble a peoples war.3 In addition, Russian forces failed to effectively integrate combined arms to seize and hold Ukrainian territory, including coordination between land power, air power, and long-range fires. For Ukrainian forces, with finite manpower and equipment resources, this is a punishing phase of operations. Washington, DC 20036. Kyiv will no longer be able to force its ugly Nazi policies upon our land.9 Sergei Aksyonov, the head of the Republic of Crimea, similarly indicated that the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions would be annexed.10 And Russias deputy prime minister Marat Khusnullin remarked that the Kherson region will take a worthy place in our Russian family.11 To expand Russias control of territory, the Russian military is likely to continue its attrition campaign in eastern and southern Ukraine. In addition, Ukraine needs to conduct a sustained guerilla campaign behind Russian lines that involves ambushes, raids, sabotage, and subversion against Russian forces and political leaders hand-picked by Moscow to replace local Ukrainian officials. It would outclass many of the Russian tank variants still in use and it was actually designed to counter Soviet tanks in the context of the Cold War. Biden speaks with the press outside the White House on Friday, March 17. The final involved background interviews with Western government officials and other subject matter experts. Images Courtesy of Getty Images. Although these achievements align with the goals of U.S. security assistance, they cannot be attributed to Western influence. More advanced weapons and platforms will be critical to overrun entrenched Russian forces. In addition, roughly a dozen Russian generals and other senior officials were killed on the battlefield, such as Lieutenant General Andrei Mordvichev, Lieutenant General Yakov Rezantsev, Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky, Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, Major General Kanamat Botashev, Major General Andrey Kolesnikov, and Major General Oleg Mityaev.13 These firings and deaths may have exacerbated command and control problems that the Russian military was already experiencing. Over the past eight years, Moscow has seized larger portions of Ukrainian territory and tried to overthrow the government. The success of Ukrainian air defenses deterred Russian aircraft from freely operating over most of Ukrainian-controlled territory. As the conflict transitions to a war of attrition, Russia is adjusting its strategy and has settled on siege tactics to exert maximum pressure. With such small numbers, the United States and its NATO allies faced a prolonged insurgency that led to the overthrow of the Afghan government in 2021.38 The force ratio of Russian soldiers in Ukraine was far too small to hold territoryincluding citiesfor long. These systems were integrated into Russias overarching systems of reconnaissance strike complexeswhich were designed for the coordinated employment of high-precision, long-range weapons linked to real-time intelligence data and accurate targeting.14 As General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, remarked, The principal features of future conflicts will be the extensive employment of precision weapons and other types of new weapons.15 To identify targets in a relatively contested environment, the Russian military also utilized some airborne platforms, including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Therein lies the classic dilemma familiar to designers of tanks and battleships of how to balance firepower, protection and mobility. The low ratio was also problematic because of the substantial number of conscripts deployed to Ukraine, who were ineffective and suffered from poor morale. As Winston Churchill remarked on the eve of World War II, appeasement only increases a dictators appetite: And do not suppose that this is the end. The Russians have implemented Grozny tactics, named for the devastation inflicted upon the Chechen capital in 1995 but also seen in Russias intervention in Syria. Russia has a recent history of attempting to grind out military victories. As Russias erstwhile blitzkrieg fizzled into trench warfare, the conflict has become the infantrys nightmare but the gunners laboratory. Will Leopard 2 tanks be a game-changer in Ukraine? We need your consent to load this YouTube content. Nevertheless, NDIA reserves the right to delete or take other action with respect to postings (or parts thereof) that NDIA believes in good faith violate this Legal Notice and/or are potentially harmful or unlawful. Indeed, it is likely that the fighting at Bakhmut will shape the next major moves in eastern Ukraine. With U.S. encouragement. While large-scale spoiling attacks are risky, smaller "hit-and-run ambushes" alongside sabotage by Ukrainian special forces between . In the initial phase of the war, Russian ground forces invaded on four main fronts: After suffering a series of setbacks that are highlighted later in this analysis, the Russian military began to withdraw forces from Kyiv around April 2022 and concentrate its efforts on eastern and southern Ukraine. NLOS-C for the Airborne and Light Infantry would complement the 105mm MPF light tank coming into service and Crusader has the range and rate-of-fire that the M109A6 does not have.Does the US Army ever resurrect any canceled projects? Drones and counter-battery radar, which can instantly pinpoint artillery as it fires, have made shoot-and-scoot tactics a necessity. First, Ukrainian forces could launch a series of spoiling attacks that prevent Russia from building up forces. Looking across the wider eastern front, it is also apparent that the current contact line, which runs from the east of Kharkov, southwards to Donetsk, forms a dangerous salient into Russian-controlled territory. But the Ukraine war has been different. Ukraine has also implemented reforms that had nothing to do with U.S. security assistance. Ukrainians fought Russians with Ukrainian weapons operating on Arabic interfaces. 2023 Center for Strategic & International Studies. Additionally, it will likely spin up its logistics systems to sustain its forces during a protracted war. He also points to the significance of industrial infrastructure to support artillery, such as depth of munitions stocks, munitions manufacturing capability and sovereign manufacturing capability of replacement parts such as barrels which require some specialist engineering, which is not easily established.. Materiel supply to Ukraine. How healthy the interface is between the Wagner forces and Russian army command is less easy to define and there are indications that Wagner does not enjoy full access to Russian combat support services. Today, as the fighting continues, casualties mount, and the humanitarian crisis worsens, it's unclear what will happen next. RT is not responsible for the content of external internet sites. New Atlanticist is where top experts and policymakers at the Atlantic Council and beyond offer exclusive insight on the most pressing global challengesand the United States role in addressing them alongside its allies and partners. Once these objectives are achieved, we assess that Russia will likely settle into a war of attrition, starving Ukraine of supplies, blocking access to the Black Sea, and eventually prompting famine as Ukrainian farmers are unable to tend to their harvest. In addition, Russian ships in the Black Sea have conducted a naval blockade of Ukraine, halting commerce at Ukrainian ports, and struck Ukrainian targets with cruise missiles and other stand-off weapons. Though the immediate risk of collapse of Ukraine, or even Kyiv, has subsided, Russia has a stranglehold on the country, effectively cutting it off completely from naval resupply and significantly reducing the capacity for resupply by air. But weapons and ammunition from Western countries were essential to Ukraines ability to sustain the fight against Russia. The Conversation asked three scholars to briefly explain what this attack means for the people of Ukraine and the world. For centuries, artillery was called the king of battle, and great commanders relied on masses of cannons to dominate the battlefield. A charred Russian tank and captured tanks are seen, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in the Sumy region, Ukraine, March 7, 2022. In addition, thanks to Mark Cancian, Ben Jensen, Michelle Macander, and Danielle Ngo for their helpful comments on an early draft of the document. For example, Ukrainian manufacturers make an excellent antitank weapon, the Stuhna-P, but the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense did not order enough of them in 2021. We expect that Russia will prioritize interdicting external resupply into Ukraine in the next week, including through aerial and artillery bombardment, ambushes, and sabotage of rail lines. First, the Russian army faced significant logistical and maintenance challenges operating in contested areas inside of Ukraine. RT 2023. It is an important transportation hub and sits astride a nexus of road networks. When major global news breaks, the Atlantic Councils experts have you covereddelivering their sharpest rapid insight and forward-looking analysis direct to your inbox. The United States has provided much-needed antitank weapons, howitzers, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), antiship missiles, air-defense capabilities, and infantry fighting vehicles and tanks. Without a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, a major U.S. and Western military objective should be to provide sufficient military assistance to help Ukraine retake territory in the east and south. Commanders relied on masses of cannons to dominate the battlefield balance firepower, protection mobility. Extensive funding for the content of external internet sites Ukraine, including the PCL-181! Has been upgraded several times in the counterfire instance, Moscow has seized larger portions of Ukrainian territory and to! The dominant weapon, which can instantly pinpoint artillery as it fires, made... In Ukraine, U.S. Officials Predict the war & # x27 ; s Path as! 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